John Hemming's Web Log John's Reference Website
Saturday, June 25, 2016
  Section 50 and negotiations with the EU - delay is key.
Given that Brexit is now certain the UK has a challenging negotiation. It was to be expected that the UK would not immediately give notice to the EU under Article 50. What the UK needs to do ideally is to negotiate the settlement in substance before giving notice. Time and delay is in the UK's interest as is obvious from the comments by the EU Commission. The challenges to negotiate is how much the UK has to pay to the EU for access to the Single Market and what the continuing rules on freedom of movement will be. If the UK were to cease being a member of the EU without some solutions to many of the major issues then it would cause considerable economic disruption (beyond what is in the financial markets). On the other hand this would not really impact the EU that much. Hence the UK needs to avoid being forced into the corner and delaying on giving notice is the only solution for this. Interesting articles

Experimental Traffic Alerts System
Experimental Traffic Alerts System Root link
Osmond House Page
 
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
  Useful links about withdrawal from the EU and other international treaties.
The Vienna Convention on the law of Treaties 1969 A European Parliament briefing on withdrawal from the EU
 
Saturday, June 11, 2016
  Norway vs the UK - Brexit could mean 10 Euros per person (per year) higher net contributions to the EU budget.
Because the UK's realistic alternative to the EU is membership of the EEA it is worth comparing Norway's situation to that of the UK. This is a relevant story about how being in the EEA (not having to follow the CAP or CFP) can mean countries having to follow laws and regulations the setting of which countries have not participated in. However, there is also the question about cash.

Full fact have looked at the issue of what our net contribution to the EU is. They conclude it was about £8.5bn in 2015. Norway was a lot less. Their contribution according to This page from the Norwegian government is around 388+447+6+25 Million Euro per year. (ie 886 million Euro - see page for detailed breakdown. However, Norway has a population of only 5m and we have a population of 64m. If you look at the per capita contribution it is £132 in the UK and 177 Euro in norway. The Euro Sterling Exchange rate has varied recently from almost 1.5 to 1.25. Yesterday was 1.267. Converting £132 at that rate gives EUR 167.

The pound has declined because of the threat of brexit on the UK economy. However, on the current exchange rate on a per capita basis were the UK to leave the EU and remain in the EEA (as the agreement says) upon reasonable assumptions as detailed above then our net contribution to the EU would be higher.
 

Click Here for access to higher resolution versions of the photos The license for use allows use of the photos by media as long as they are attributed.

better brent chart

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Published, promoted, and printed (well not really printed I suppose, more like typed) by John Hemming, 1772 Coventry Road, Birmingham B26 1PB. Hosted by blogspot.com part of Google.com 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway Mountain View, CA 94043, United States of America. This blog is posted by John Hemming in his personal capacity as an individual.

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